Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Brief peek at the current situation

On the international front:

The EU seems to have declared total war on its member states. Debt bailouts in exchange for sovereignty is the strategy. I could go on and on about this, something I barely understand. The one thing I do know is more countries are seeking bailouts, and one of them will default. Again, domino theory comes into play. Spain, a major economy and large population, could bring the whole shit house down.

Syria now engulfed in a full-fledged civil war, with Turkey arming its borders and Saudi Arabia declaring it will provide salaries for opposition fighters. Lebanon, who shares a border like Turkey, has also seen the violence spill into the country and they aren’t too thrilled about it either.

The big three – Russia, China, and the US - are not jumping into the fray tenaciously, each holding firm but cautious stances. Russia, an arms supplier and ally to Assad, doesn’t want to lose that business, especially as they have a major naval base there. China seems to remain relatively silent, save dampening any aggressive progress by the UN. The US vacillates from calling for Assad to step down to silence.

Then there is Iran, the current lynch pin in the whole mess. They answer to Russia and China, as confidential front man, while bringing Venezuela into the alliance. The concern being expressed by prognosticators now is: 1) Syria will continue to deteriorate. 2) Outside forces will align with rebels / regime. 3) Regional war will result along the lines of allegiance. 4) Iran becomes the main target of opportunity.

The only thing standing between Iran and Syria is Iraq, with Afghanistan on the other side. Pincer move seems inevitable. The shot that started WW I, killing Archduke Ferdinand, may have been fired in this case when Syria shot down a Turkish fighter without considering the recognized rules regarding stray aircraft over sovereign territory.

This is a very possible, if not likely, chain of events. The Arab Spring countries (Egypt, Libya) are not too fond of the US. Afghanistan and Iraq have been trashed. Pakistan hates us. The violence, mostly ethnic or religious, has ignited across the middle of Africa.

To call this a dangerous neighborhood would be the understatement of the century. All it is going to take is a cross border fire fight to blow up the entire region. I think NATO used its only trump card in Libya. To try that maneuver again seems laden with unintended consequences, none of which are very palatable.

The US has a tremendous force presence in the region right now. Israel, as it has for decades, appears to be hanging on by its fingernails. Undoubtedly, should a full blown conflict erupt on a regional level, they would be a first target for the “bad guys” early on. The world is waiting on a match to strike and light the fuse.

Historic wildfires in Colorado. Tens of thousands evacuated near Colorado Springs and Boulder, including the USAF Academy.

"Today is one of those days when you understand what the early parts of the global warming era are going to look like," McKibben says. "For the first time in history, we managed to get the fourth tropical storm of the year before July. ... These are the most destructive fires in Colorado history, and they come after the warmest weather ever recorded there. ... This is what it looks like as the planet begins — and I underline 'begins' — to warm. Nothing that happened [at the United Nations Rio+20 summit] will even begin to slow down that trajectory." Dr. Bill McKibben

The gulf coast has been inundated twice in the last few weeks, first by a band of rain that wouldn’t leave and this weekend by TS Debby. Some communities got flooded to the extreme, sinkholes opened in areas affected.

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